Hurricane Jose lingers in Atlantic, will it head toward US?

Posted September 13, 2017

According to the NHC's 11 a.m. Monday advisory, Jose is now located about 305 miles north-northeast of Grand Turk Island.

Hurricane Jose, a Category 2 storm with winds of 105 miles per hour, is on a path that theoretically could bring it near the Bahamas by Saturday.

After Irma climbed up Florida, it had slowed to a tropical depression as it dumps rain over Tennessee and the Ohio Valley, NHC reported.

During the weekend the projected track has it well off the Florida and Georgia coasts, and the model consensus keeps it at sea, but five days is a quasi-eternity in the hurricane-forecasting universe.

The National Hurricane Center called Jose an "amorphous blob of deep convection", in its 11 a.m. advisory.

Caicos before Irma
Caicos before Irma

"At This point in time we don't want to put anything out there that Jose is headed to The Bahamas, it is irresponsible at this time", Mr. Simmons said. Beyond that, however, the storm's future remained unclear. It will be blocked from heading north, or east, or south, so the storm will do a clockwise loop over the next four days.

The National Hurricane Center recognizes this uncertainty in its Tuesday morning forecasts for Jose, saying "after (three days), the confidence in the forecast decreases as the guidance diverges significantly". Other forecasts, however, say the storm could directly impact the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts.

Any potential direct hit from Jose wouldn't be until next week, however. But forecasters warn that long-term forecasts are often off by hundreds of miles. Then, there's the lone model taking the storm through The Bahamas before making another Florida landfall.

Before this hurricane season, the United States had gone a record 12 years without a major hurricane landfall.