Oil Price Hits $54.25 P/B As Opec Predicts High Demand, Market Stability

Posted September 14, 2017

"Irma will have a negative impact on oil demand but not on oil production or processing".

US crude oil production will grow in the remaining months of this year and reach its highest-ever annual average in 2018, despite the impact of Hurricane Harvey, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast on September 12. Total U.S. stocks stood at 468.2 million barrels. Data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) was due later on Tuesday while the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its numbers on Wednesday (9/13).

"Even if bloated global oil stockpiles continue to decline through this year, OPEC will still fall short of its objective to reduce oil inventories to their five-year norm by the end of 1Q2018".

The United States West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 7 cents or about 0.2 percent to $48.16 per barrel.

Saudi Arabia is expected to cut crude oil exports to worldwide customers by 350,000 bpd in October 2017 due to the production cut deal.

The deal agreed late previous year to reduce output by about 1.8 million bpd until March 2018 helped to keep prices as high as $58 a barrel in January, but they have since sagged as global stocks have not fallen as quickly as expected.

Oil in NY has averaged about $49 a barrel this year as efforts to drain a global glut by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners including Russian Federation are stifled by rising shale output.

EIA estimates the price for Brent crude oil will average $51 per barrel for the year and $49 per barrel for WTI.

The world's largest producer said it discussed the possibility of extending the supply cut between OPEC and non-OPEC members with Venezuela and Kazakhstan.

An extension of that duration would be needed under the worst-case scenario for the oil market that Opec ministers are now contemplating, the people said, asking not to be named because the talks were private. Keeping that aside, USA oil inventories have declined by ~70 million barrels since the end of March.

For this year, the IEA sees the need for OPEC crude at 32.7 million bpd, in line with the current production.

After first trying to keep supplies steady to keep its market share despite the oil glut, it has recently tried to cut production as Saudi's economy faces an uncertain future.